Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic
Traditionally, financial crisis EarlyWarning Systems (EWSs) have relied onmacroeconomic leading indicatorswhen forecasting the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking the persistence of the crisis phenomenon into account. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an exact maximum likelihood estimation method in both a country-by-country and a panel frame...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.015